# 2027 Draft Budget Scenario **Status:** planning scenario for campaign and public review **Currency:** current-dollar CAD **Starting point:** 2026 Mayor's Budget design and the printed amount raised from existing residents ## Result The clean working result is: | Measure | Amount | | --- | ---: | | 2026 existing-resident levy reference | `$38,133,221` | | Three-percent all-staff comparison benchmark | `$38,721,045` | | December 31 inside-worker settlement case before discrete changes | `$38,133,221` | | Sustainable Community Initiatives pause | `($22,500)` | | 2027 resident-survey replacement | `($25,000)` | | Software maintenance reduction | `($174,189)` | | Open-source transition and rework allowance | `$120,000` | | Golden Broom and cleanup-equipment first-year cost | `$1,945-$2,490` / `$2,218` midpoint | | Local Representation 70-area Tier 1 baseline | `$52,605` | | Central vacant-home-tax estimate after administration allowance | `($144,504)` | | Civilian crisis-response pilot | `$60,000` | | OSHaRE mobile meal pilot van and route operation | `$25,000` | | **Working 2027 operating levy** | **`$37,881,851`** | | Change from 2026 reference | **`-$251,370` / `-0.66%`** | The operating result holds the 2026 tax-supported capital transfer flat and includes the 70-area Local Representation Tier 1 baseline. When the 2027 funded capital-plan tax levy is substituted for that 2026 transfer, the capital-inclusive planning result becomes approximately **`$38,953,620- $38,978,620`**. The separate capital section explains the range and the higher upper review case from detail pages that are absent from the funded summary. The working case carries 2026 compensation forward without an automatic increase for eligible non-unionized positions at or above the current published Grey-Bruce living-wage benchmark. Eligible employees below that benchmark may receive increases until they reach it, and the wage floor would rise when the published benchmark rises. The December 31 CUPE 1189-00 successor agreement is assumed to produce no general wage increase for 2027. The three-percent figure remains a comparison benchmark only; it is not added to the draft budget unless a contract, arbitration award or other obligation requires it. The City has three identified bargaining units: CUPE 1189-00, CUPE 1189-01, and Owen Sound Professional Fire Fighters Association Local 531. The draft keeps unresolved seats and successor terms visible rather than assuming either an increase or a saving. The software plan reduces the `$696,756` maintenance line by 25 percent, or `$174,189`, and schedules `$120,000` for open-source migration, configuration, training and data rework. The same `$120,000` allocation replaces the planned `$248,000` HRIS capital project, leaving a separate **`$128,000` capital reduction**. The working case also uses the central vacant-home-tax planning estimate: approximately `$192,672` gross revenue at a 1 percent rate under the Ottawa-like vacancy case, less a 25 percent administration allowance, or approximately `$144,504` net estimated revenue. It funds the proposed `$60,000` civilian crisis-response pilot and `$25,000` OSHaRE mobile meal pilot from that estimate, leaving approximately `$59,504` for other housing or safety priorities. The figures remain planning estimates until Owen Sound publishes the qualifying-property count, program rules, collection results and actual administration costs. ## Year Zero wastewater screening The draft includes a **`$3,000-$6,000` wastewater-rate-funded allowance**, using **`$5,000`** as the working midpoint, for targeted solvent and volatile-organic- compound screening. The Year Zero approach uses existing wastewater staff for mapping and surface observations, rents or borrows calibrated screening equipment where useful, and sends targeted upstream and downstream samples to a laboratory. Permanent sewer sensors remain a later decision based on repeated evidence and a published cost case. This rate-funded allowance does not change the operating property-tax levy. See the [Year Zero wastewater screening note](wastewater-year-zero-screening.md). ## What is included ### 1. 2026 levy as the current-dollar reference The 2026 budget prints `$38,133,221` as the amount raised from existing residents. This is the operating-levy reference for the draft. It keeps the 2027 model tied to the City's own budget structure rather than applying an unexplained percentage to the whole budget. ### 2. Wage treatment and the December 31 settlement The detailed 2026 budget contains `$19,594,126` in positive salary-and-benefit lines. The printed 3 percent staff-wage figure creates a `$587,824` comparison benchmark when applied to that base. It is useful for showing the cost of an across-the-board increase, but it is not a draft-budget assumption. The draft starts from the 2026 levy and adds only known contractual or arbitration obligations. Eligible non-unionized positions at or above the living-wage benchmark receive no automatic cost-of-living increase in this case. Eligible positions below the benchmark may receive increases to reach and track the published floor. The December 31 CUPE 1189-00 negotiation is modelled as a 0 percent general wage increase for 2027. The public 2021 inside-worker payroll of approximately `$1.87 million` implies about `$56,100` avoided against the three-percent comparison benchmark. Applying the known 2024-2026 inside-worker wage changes to that older payroll gives an upper comparison of about `$61,899`. Those figures describe the avoided comparison increase; the actual levy effect of the settlement is holding the 2026 base flat. Known 2027 labour obligations are handled separately: - CUPE 1189-00: the successful December 31 case assumes 0 percent for 2027. - CUPE 1189-01: the current agreement runs to March 31, 2027, with the 3 percent rate effective April 1, 2026. The current 2026 wage level carries into the first quarter of 2027; the successor term for April onward remains an open budget item. - Fire Local 531: interest arbitration remains unresolved, so any retroactive award or successor increase requires a separate provision. The expanded priced screen is still useful for showing the scale of the non-union comparison. It is `$4,800,173-$4,950,173`, with a `$4,875,173` working midpoint, producing an avoided comparison increase of `$144,005-$148,505`, with `$146,255` as the working amount. It is not an additional reduction from the 2026 levy because the draft never adds the comparison increase in the first place. Thirty additional non-frontline chart seats remain unpriced and unresolved: | Draft basis | Avoided 3 percent increase | | ---: | ---: | | 18-seat floor | `$71,921` | | **Expanded priced-screen midpoint** | **`$146,255`** | | Expanded priced-screen low | `$144,005` | | Expanded priced-screen high | `$148,505` | | 20 percent broader sensitivity | `$117,565` | | 30 percent broader sensitivity | `$176,347` | | 40 percent broader sensitivity | `$235,130` | The expanded screen combines salary-paid public records with the rounded salary bands already displayed in the organization chart. It is a planning case, not a verified payroll or levy saving. Employer costs may move differently because benefits, vacancies, contracts and bargaining-unit schedules require separate treatment. ### 3. Strategic programme and survey changes The discrete Sustainable Community Initiatives line is `$22,500` in the 2026 budget. The working scenario pauses that line while statutory administration and separately justified services are rebuilt from their resident result. The 2027 capital plan lists a `$25,000` Citizen Satisfaction Survey funded from the tax levy. The working scenario uses HelpOS, public participation and accessible web or telephone channels first. A professionally sampled survey could still be approved if its distinct information need, method and value are published. The separate `$25,000` Employee Engagement Survey appears in the capital detail material but does not appear in the funded capital-summary CSV. It is therefore excluded from the levy calculation until the City reconciles its status. ### 4. Local Representation and participation The working case includes the verified 70-area Tier 1 Local Representation baseline as a recurring operating cost. It provides 70 Local Representatives, 70 annual neighbourhood gatherings, 10,500 participating households, 10,500 household invitations, 840 representative-to-Councillor meetings, and 1,925 paid representative hours each year. The annual baseline is `$52,605`: `$47,355` in wages and `$5,250` in communication materials. Employer overhead and program administration are `$0` in this planning case, and Councillor salary remains separately shown with no incremental cost. The baseline works out to `$4.78` per household per year, or about `$0.40` per month across 11,000 households. The 20-area mixed rollout remains available as an optional scenario. ### 5. Vacant-home-tax estimate and crisis-response pilot The central planning case applies a 1 percent tax to the Ottawa-like 1.2 percent vacancy benchmark. It estimates approximately `$192,672` gross revenue and approximately `$144,504` after a 25 percent administration allowance. The working case assigns `$60,000` to the proposed 12-week civilian crisis-response pilot and `$25,000` to a lean OSHaRE mobile meal pilot. The meal pilot assumes OSHaRE supplies food and volunteers provide staffing, leaving approximately `$59,504` for other housing or safety priorities. This estimate supports a draft budget decision while the City develops the actual program. Council would still need to set the qualifying-property definition, exemptions, declaration and audit process, collection method, appeals, enforcement, startup costs and ongoing administration. The public budget should report gross collections, administration, pilot spending, homes returned to use and remaining revenue each year. ### 6. Conditional gallery transition The 2026 Tom Thomson Art Gallery division levy requirement is `$459,309`. A library/shared-use conversion could release that gross levy amount, but the working scenario leaves it outside the booked result. Collection obligations, employment arrangements, facility costs, accessibility, library expansion and replacement visitor services need a complete transition plan first. If those costs are resolved and the conversion is approved, the working case would become: | Case | Projected levy | Change from 2026 | | --- | ---: | ---: | | Working case plus gallery transition | `$37,422,542` | `-$710,679` / `-1.64%` | This is a gross levy scenario, not a verified net saving. ### 7. Conditional management transition The staffing review identifies a future base-salary planning range of `$58,000-$183,000` across the City Manager and three principal directors. The model does not book that range in the 2027 operating case because the platform uses vacancies, succession, reassignment and future appointments rather than assuming immediate layoffs. If a qualifying vacancy or appointment decision actually produces the change, the gallery-transition case would move to approximately `$37,364,542` to `$37,239,542`, before employer-cost, transition and replacement adjustments. ## First-year commitments using existing authority and capacity Several first-year commitments do not require a new levy line because they are ordinary duties of existing staff, work already included in the systems transition, or actions controlled at another level of government: - Transparency, service reporting, public decision tracking, the Public Council Forum, and public written Council sessions are Clerk and staff duties using existing administrative capacity, the existing Mailman archive, and related ERPNext or systems-transition work. No separate first-year levy allowance is required. - The Mayor's budget preparation, written staff directions, baseline reporting, and zero-based service review use the City's existing paid administration. They are first-year management work, not new staffing commitments. - Affordable Rural Communities and related rural planning are County-level policy work. They do not require an Owen Sound operating-levy allocation in this City budget. The homes and productive land would be financed through the participating communities, households, and property arrangements. - Voluntary rural recovery is a Phase 4 provincial, grant, and recovery-partner programme. It is outside the first-year budget. - Local procurement, import replacement, and practical service coordination use existing departmental work and do not have a separate first-year levy line. - A police body-camera pilot can be presented through the Police Services Board within the existing police operating or capital envelope. Each constable on shift would receive a camera. The current 2026 police-services operating block is `$9,503,559`, including Police Services Board, Police Officers, Police Civilians and Court Security. Using the 13 named constable seats in the current public organization chart as a conservative ceiling, cameras cost about `$5,500-$6,500`, and local storage with a separate backup adds about `$2,000-$5,000`. The core estimate is therefore about `$7,500-$11,500` before any dock capacity or spare camera. It uses open-source Loom evidence management, existing staff and no new software, training-contract or position line, so the working main City levy change is `$0`. See the [body-camera pilot note](body-camera-open-source-pilot.md). ## Conditional or later costs kept outside the dollar total Several other platform changes remain active policy items without a committed 2027 levy amount: - Reliable transit has a first-year implementation target of `$0` against the property-tax levy; recurring evening or Sunday service requires a funding gate and a published service case. - A lean OSHaRE mobile meal pilot is carried as a `$25,000` revenue-funded planning allowance. It assumes a leased van, fuel, insurance, basic vehicle operation, OSHaRE-provided food, and volunteer staffing. See the [mobile meal pilot costing](mobile-meal-pilot-costing.md). - Year Zero wastewater solvent screening is carried as a `$5,000` working allowance funded through wastewater rates. See the [wastewater screening note](wastewater-year-zero-screening.md). - A vacant-home-tax screen using observed Hamilton, Ottawa and Vancouver comparator rates produces approximately `$80,000-$401,000` gross revenue at a 1 percent rate, with an illustrative `$60,000-$301,000` net range after a comparable administration-cost sensitivity. The working case uses the central Ottawa-like estimate of `$144,504` net revenue and allocates `$60,000` to the civilian crisis-response pilot. See the [vacant-home-tax and crisis-pilot screen](vacant-home-tax-crisis-pilot-scenario.md). - Software, telecommunications and open-source alternatives remain review candidates until invoices, licence counts, usage and equivalent-service costs are published. - The marriage-coordinator reassignment remains an identified opportunity with its amount pending the position's loaded cost and workload. - Including one free garbage bag every other week would create a preliminary `$514,800-$608,400` annual pressure from foregone tag revenue, before added disposal and collection costs, so it is excluded from this savings case. - Shared Stewardship can release municipal capacity only after suitable tasks, safety controls, collective-agreement requirements and service measures are approved. ## Capital plan treatment The 2026 levy reference already includes `$3,681,731` of tax-supported capital. The 2027 funded capital summary contains `$14,226,000` across 61 projects. The detailed project sheets identify the following funding mix for the funded summary, with one `$25,000` summary project lacking a matching detail sheet: | Funding source | Funded detail amount | | --- | ---: | | Tax levy | `$4,753,500` plus an unresolved `$25,000` project | | Water rates | `$2,180,200` | | Wastewater rates | `$425,000` | | Reserves | `$2,773,800` | | Federal Gas Tax | `$125,000` | | Debenture | `$50,000` | | Donations | `$3,008,500` | | OCIF Formula | `$605,000` | | Development Charges | `$280,000` | Replacing the 2026 tax-supported capital transfer with the documented 2027 funded-plan range adds `$1,071,769-$1,096,769` to the operating-only working case. The resulting capital-inclusive levy is approximately **`$38,953,620- $38,978,620`**, or **`2.15-2.22 percent` above** the 2026 existing-resident reference. The working midpoint, which treats the unresolved `$25,000` project as tax-funded, is **`$38,978,620`**, an increase of **`$845,399 / 2.22 percent`**. The detailed PDF also contains four additional 2027 projects absent from the funded summary. Including those pages produces a `$6,558,500` tax-levy upper screen and a levy of approximately `$40,758,620`. That upper figure remains a review case until the City reconciles funded status and capital approvals. Priority 2027 capital questions are the resident survey, software and telecommunications alternatives, and the full cost and service case for future City Manager initiatives. A deferred or redesigned capital project changes the levy only when its funding source and operating effect are documented. The software portion of the draft uses a direct budget assumption: consolidate systems and replace functionally equivalent licensing with open-source or lower-cost tools, while reserving `$120,000` for 2027 transition work. The draft shows `$174,189` in recurring operating reduction and `$128,000` in HRIS capital reduction. ## Results residents can use The draft gives residents a clear first-year reference: - the working operating levy is **$37,881,851**, or **$251,370 and 0.66 percent below** the 2026 existing-resident reference, including the Golden Broom midpoint; - a gallery transition could bring that working case to **1.86 percent below** the 2026 reference, subject to a complete service and facility plan; - the software changes contribute **`$174,189` in recurring operating reduction** and **`$128,000` in capital reduction** after the `$120,000` rework allowance; - future management replacement decisions could add a conditional **$58,000-$183,000** base-salary effect; and - the expanded priced non-union screen shows `$146,255` of avoided comparison growth, with 30 additional non-frontline seats still requiring salary and bargaining-unit mapping. The plan starts with a public baseline, applies the living-wage-protection and no-automatic-increase rules within lawful authority, pauses clearly discretionary lines for review, and measures every future change through the Verified Savings Ledger. Residents can then see what was assumed, what changed, what service remained, and what recurring levy effect was actually achieved. ## Source files - [2026 budget summary](2026-budget-summary.csv) - [2026 detailed budget line items](2026-budget-line-items.csv) - [2026 key facts](2026-budget-key-facts.csv) - [2027-2031 capital plan by year](2027-2031-capital-by-year.csv) - [2027-2031 capital detail review](../../tax-savings-screening/capital-detail-review.csv) - [Staffing and reorganization savings review](../../organization-simplification/staffing-savings-review.md) - [Tax and Value-for-Money Plan](../../../book/growing-a-good-future/notes/source-material/platform-pages/current/mayor/tax.md) - [Strong Mayor Powers](../../../book/growing-a-good-future/notes/source-material/platform-pages/current/mayor/strong-mayor-powers.md) - [Union coverage and no-COLA draft basis](union-coverage-and-no-cola-basis.md) - [Maximum non-union seat screen](maximum-nonunion-seat-screen.csv) - [Resident-friendly 2027 budget explanation](2027-budget-resident-explanation.md)