Through you honourable Warden Matrosovs,

The transportation master plan will have to address the elephant in the room of fossil fuel depletion if it wishes to have any relevance to our collective future.

Thanks to feedback from Councillor Dobreen I improved my news agency and it now follows the agenda structure and gets at least most people’s names correct, so I have article and full transcripts of your recent meeting now: https://helpos.ca/c/grey-county-council/5171/road-transfer-postponed-energy-program-launched-grey-county So I included everyone who engaged in the road discussion in this email.

With roughly 30% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer and 15%-20% of total oil production stuck in the Persian Gulf, gives us a preview of the 2030s for the world, since during the 2030s global oil production to decline roughly 18%. In a conservative/optimistic scenario that means fuel prices increase roughly 150-200% (to $2.75-3.30/lt), which has downstream effects on all other commodities like food, building materials etc.

Around $3/lt it’s difficult for people to afford to drive to work, so public transportation systems become much more important. At a county scale that means keeping the municipalities connected together. The most relevant example of a cost effective transportation system is the Siberian railway system, as they have similar environmental and cost constraints.

The Trans-Siberian Railway is built from simple, durable elements arranged for low wear and easy upkeep: continuous welded rail minimizes joints; sleepers on deep, well-drained ballast spread loads and resist freeze–thaw; and raised gravel embankments shed water. Where electrified, an overhead catenary system provides centralized power with relatively few moving parts compared to diesel fleets. Operations rely on single tracks with passing sidings, gentle curves, and centralized control instead of complex signalling, while redundancy such as the Baikal–Amur Mainline allows maintenance without full shutdown. Applied to Grey County, this means single-track lines with good drainage, moderate loads, and optional future catenary electrification, producing infrastructure that is low-cost, durable, and straightforward to maintain.

While fuel at the pump may still be too cheap for mass shift to public transit, it is worth laying the groundwork now. In terms of the road transfers, the County has to decide which roads are level enough that they can be converted to the county rail system and keep those.

For the municipalities that get the “extra roads” it has to be with the understanding that it’s more about keeping them navigable rather than nicely paved. Many will probably have to revert to gravel over the coming decades. Human, animal and small electric powered vehicles are all plausible forms of transportation in the 2040s. Most trucks/containers and freight would have to be on rail.

Before I close, I do hope some of those of you interested in food and agriculture will investigate that about the 30% of globally traded fertilizer being off the market probably until after planting season and what effect it will have on our food prices, as well as how to mitigate and prepare for the effects. I would hope it is worth discussing at the county level.

Relevantly the Confederation has said: “We can see that many groups join in order that the resources which are available might be enhanced for the use of each within the group. It is much easier, for example, to utilize one vehicle for transportation among many entities than it is for each entity to find the means whereby it shall have its own vehicle. There are entities which thrive within the environment shared by many. Such entities are of a nature which is outgoing and of a, shall we say, gregarious bent. These entities find it quite natural and a quite happy means of sharing whereby many come together for a purpose. This purpose, when of a spiritual nature, then, is enhanced in its dissemination, shall we say. There are entities which are less able to function within such an environment and are more likely to find means of shining a light by, shall we say, offering as individual entities. The sharing within a larger group then becomes that which is more periodic than continual.” L/L Research 1984/12/09

May you be blessed, Andrii Zvorygin